Germans in Brandenburg are casting their votes in a crucial regional election that could see the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party claim its first victory in a traditionally Social Democratic stronghold. As the polls close at 6 p.m. (1600 GMT), early indications suggest that the AfD may surpass Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD), building on its recent successes in other eastern states.
Historical Context and Recent Successes
On September 1, the AfD made history by winning Thuringia’s state election and became the first far-right party to do so in Germany since World War Two. That same day, it came close to winning in Saxony, further cementing its increasing power in eastern Germany. The party is taking advantage of popular worries about immigration, the prolonged conflict in Ukraine, and economic downturns—concerns that are particularly relevant in areas with a history of communist rule.
Despite its rising popularity, the AfD faces significant hurdles in forming a government. Other parties have firmly refused to partner with the AfD in coalition governments, which means even if it wins, it will likely not govern due to a lack of majority support.
Voter Turnout and Sentiment
As of 2 p.m. (1200 GMT), voter turnout was reported at 46%, a notable increase from 31.3% in the previous election in 2019. This surge reflects heightened engagement among the electorate, many of whom are eager to express their opinions amid economic uncertainty and political infighting within the federal government.
Brandenburg’s popular SPD premier, Dietmar Woidke, expressed optimism as he cast his ballot near the Polish border. Woidke is acutely aware of the stakes involved; he has vowed to resign if the AfD overtakes the SPD, a move that highlights the election’s high stakes for both parties.
The Stakes for Scholz and the SPD
A defeat for the SPD in Brandenburg would be a significant embarrassment for Chancellor Scholz, who has seen his popularity plummet in recent months. Woidke has mostly avoided campaigning alongside Scholz, instead focusing on local economic successes, such as the opening of a Tesla factory and the expansion of Brandenburg Airport.
Polls indicate a tight race, with the AfD slightly leading at 28% compared to the SPD’s 27%. If the SPD can close the gap, it may stave off a humiliating loss. However, the specter of the AfD’s rising influence looms large, raising questions about Scholz’s leadership and the future of the SPD.
The Power of the AfD’s Messaging
Hans-Christoph Berndt, the AfD’s candidate for Brandenburg state premier, expressed confidence in his party’s chances. He emphasized that the election is just one part of a larger narrative for Germany. The AfD has been adept at tapping into voter concerns, particularly among younger demographics, which has helped bolster its support in recent weeks.
The party’s messaging has resonated strongly in Brandenburg, where residents are increasingly anxious about the future. With over a quarter of voters still undecided, the outcome remains uncertain, and both sides are gearing up for a tense finish.
The Broader Implications
A potential AfD victory would not only represent a significant shift in local politics but also signal a worrying trend for federal governance. The AfD’s continued success could force other parties to reconsider their strategies and alliances as they prepare for the upcoming federal elections in 2025.
Critics of the AfD and its messaging warn that the party’s rise poses a threat to democratic norms in Germany. Scholz has called on other parties to maintain a “firewall” against the AfD, but this may prove increasingly difficult if the party continues to gain traction among voters.
Germany, Brandenburg regional parliament election today:
2 PM CEST turnout estimate (excludes postal voting)
2024: 46.1% (+14.7)
2019: 31.4%
2014: 22.4%
2009: 36.3%
2004: 30.3%
1999: 30.2%
Source: Landeswahlleiter Brandenburg
➤ https://t.co/ppik5DryjG#ltwbb… pic.twitter.com/RG0HFJIxwv
— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) September 22, 2024As Brandenburg’s election results begin to emerge, all eyes will be on the implications for both local and national politics. The outcome will serve as a litmus test for the current government and may shape the landscape of German politics for years to come. With the AfD poised to make significant gains, the traditional dominance of the SPD is at risk, prompting urgent conversations about the future of political alliances in Germany.
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